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Up and Coming

Housing Data in the Hot Seat

 
 

The economy shifts into "prepare-for-the-next-meeting-of-the-Federal-Open-Market-Committee" mode with the release next Wednesday of the Beige Book in what will otherwise be a week heavily weighted with housing data.

It follows, of course, a week in which housing forced its way into economic consciousness, dominated by questions over the solvency of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Even though the Freddie-Fannie concerns may have been overblown, they fueled both financial and economic concerns. From a financial standpoint, the questions could disrupt the orderly flow of mortgage money even as the two government sponsored entities are key elements in the foreclosure rescue plans. From an academic economics view, Fannie and Freddie represent a nightmare for economists on both ends of the spectrum: government takes all the risk (arguably for a good public purpose of increased homeownership) while the private sector reaps the rewards (encouraging further investment). The proposed explicit support of the two agencies would have the Treasury government act as both a lender and investor -- not a prudent position.

Those concerns virtually dwarfed two incendiary inflation reports. After Tuesday’s report on producer prices showed wholesale inflation running at its fastest pace (9.1%) since June 1981 (10.5%), Wednesday’s data on consumer prices posted a 4.9% inflation rate, steepest since May 1991 (5.0%). It was no surprise then that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke emphasized inflation concerns in delivering his semi-annual report on monetary policy to Congress.

The only real surprise of the week though was Thursday’s report on June housing permits and starts with an unexpected jump in both despite ongoing housing sector struggles. The higher levels of permits and starts though came with an asterisk: new building codes took effect in New York City on July 1 and builders rushed to apply for permits in June before the new rules kicked in. Indeed, the spurt in permits and starts came in the multi-family sector (buildings with five or more housing units) underscoring the pressures on the single-family market as families shift from owners to renters.

The economy’s overall strain was clearly evident in Tuesday’s report on retail sales which were off sharply from expectations, even with a boost from sales at gasoline stations. Soaring gasoline sales contributed 76% of the increase in non-auto retail sales, leaving consumers with little to spend elsewhere. Retail sales ex-auto and ex-gasoline increased by just $627 million (0.2%) in June, the weakest growth since January and down sharply from the $2.2 billion gain in May. The report was a harsh reminder of the transitory impact of the tax rebate stimulus checks. Those payments were accelerated to early May and quickly used – to fill gas tanks, providing less of a general economic boost than hoped (except to the extent that it freed cash that might have gone for gasoline for “luxuries” such as food and clothing).

Looking ahead to data at the end of the week, leading indicators suggest home sales will continue to slip. Existing home sales for June will reflect economic conditions in April, which is when consumer confidence slipped, home purchase plans fell and mortgage interest rates increased -- not a combination pointing to improved sales absent reductions in prices. The median price of an existing home though has increased for three straight months. Although it remains below year ago levels, it is up 6.5% since February, just as the home buying season heats up. June new home sales – reported based contracts – are a function of the same factors: dropping consumer confidence, falling home buying plans and a decline in mortgage application activity (although rates for adjustable rate loans dipped slightly). Builders continue to be overwhelmed by inventory. Though completions of new single-family homes ticked down in June, in May builders completed 1.8 homes for every new house sold that month.

Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president at Washington Mutual, where he was manager of economic analysis and research. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

 

Monday, July 21  
  Leading Economic Indicators (June)
  May actual: 102.1 UP 0.1
  June consensus: 102.0 DOWN 0.1
   
   
Tuesday, July 22  
  Richmond Fed Survey (July)
  June actual: + -12.0 (DOWN 9.0)
  No July consensus
   
  Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser speaks in Pennsylvania on U.S. economy
   
   
Wednesday, July 23  
  MBA Application Index Week ended: July 18
  Week Ended July 11: 522.2, UP 1.7%
  Four-week moving average: 493.6, UP 0.7%
  No July 18 consensus
   
  Beige Book for August 5 FOMC Meeting
   
  Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin speaks at Bank of Canada conference
   
  Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn speaks on Transparency at Bank of Canada conference
   
   
Thursday, July 24  
  Unemployment Insurance Claims Week Ended July 19
  July 12 Actual: 366,000 UP 18,000
  July 19 Consensus: 380,000, UP 14,000
   
  Existing Home Sales (June)
  May actual: 4,990,000 UP 2.0%
  June consensus 4,925,000 DOWN 1.3%
   
  Housing Vacancy Rate (2Q)
  1Q actual: 2.9x%, UP 0.1%
  No 2Q consensus
   
  Homeownership Rate (2Q)
  1Q actual: 67.8% UNCHANGED
  No 2Q consensus
   
   
Friday, July 25  
  Durable Goods Orders (June)
  Total
  May actual: $213.5 billion, UP 0.03%
  June consensus: $212.7 billion DOWN 0.4%
  Ex-Transportation
  May actual: $156.3 billion, DOWN 0.8%
  June consensus: $155.8 billion DOWN 0.3%
   
  New Home Sales (June)
  May actual: 512,000 DOWN 2.5%
  June consensus: 500,000 DOWN 2.3%
   
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June Final)
  May final actual: 56.4 DOWN 3.4
  June preliminary actual: 56.6 UP 0.2
  June final: 56.0 DOWN 0.4 (from May month end)


 
 

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Contango

No, it's not a dance craze. Contago is a condition of supply and demand, essentially a fancy word to say that prices for items, typically commodities, are cheaper now than they would be at some point down the line.

Anything that¿s sold in the futures market can be in a case of contango. Futures are exactly that: a contract to buy an item or asset at a price in the future. This is the case with oil, with traders buying and selling contracts to acquire a barrel of oil in months down the line. When a market is in contango, spot prices, or the price of a commodity if you were to buy it right now, are lower than forward prices.

Why is that important? Well, it usually tells you the supply of a given commodity is plentiful (since, according to Economics 101, a large supply usually leads to cheap prices).

Incidentally, if you think contango is a mouthful, its opposite condition is known by the equally tongue-tying term backwardation.